Are you looking to analyze the method of betting on football scores and mathematics? This is an advanced football betting technique, primarily applied by betting experts during the process of analyzing odds. In the following article, we will help you understand more about this betting method—always remember to choose reputable bookmakers for safe betting.
If you often play handicap odds (Asian Handicap), you need to know how to calculate the probability of the favored team winning by how many goals compared to the underdog team. Or when you play the Over/Under (O/U) bet, you must also know how to predict how many goals will be scored in the match.
Using the Poisson Mathematical Formula to Predict Score Bets
Football bettors abroad often use the Poisson formula in mathematics to study and predict the results of football match scores.
Through the Poisson mathematical formula, we can establish several virtual models. Inside, these models contain many separate events, each operating independently of the others. To calculate the Poisson formula, you need to add a supplementary condition, meaning the selected variable must be a positive integer.
Thus, the variable cannot be a negative number or a fraction.
In football, these variables represent the number of goals scored in 90 minutes of the match. Random events refer to the intervals in which goals are scored.
For example: In the match between Everton vs. Leeds Utd, if you see that the bookmaker offers Everton with a 1-goal handicap and the O/U bet is 2, we can calculate the probability that Everton can win by a 1-goal margin by using the Poisson formula. Afterward, you can calculate the total possible score outcomes in this match, such as 1:0, 2:1, 3:2, 4:3, or 5:4.
As for the O/U bet:
- For every goal scored, you must calculate the probability of the score in that match: 1:0, 0:1.
- If 2 goals are scored, you must calculate the probability of the score: 2:0, 0:2, 1:1.
- Similarly, for 3 goals, the probability would be 3:0, 0:3, 1:2, 2:1.
- If no goals are scored, the probability would be 0:0.
Solving the Poisson Equation Directly in Excel
If you’re now trying to recall the knowledge to solve the Poisson equation, you’ll spend quite a bit of time on that. Instead, you can search online or find information about the Poisson formula algorithm on sources like Wikipedia. You can also explore some bookmakers from Vaobo to discover more reliable betting sites.
Just by looking at the formula, it can be overwhelming. If you lack expertise, how can you quickly solve the Poisson equation?
In those days, you would use Excel to solve the Poisson equation. Setting up the Poisson Formula in Excel is a relatively simple one. You simply have to provide a value (goals) and hit enter — the final answer will appear.
For instance: If the home team average is 1.6 goals per game, and the away teams in an average of score around 1.2 right there using your Poisson formula you get a probability for how many A-team will score on that match! Just always remember to look at those best and most sure soccer predictions before you go bet.
Does the Poisson Maths Equation Work for Football Score Betting?
For football experts, they will use the Poisson formula to determine their estimated probability of goals for both team in this match. Yet the main point is, you must know what will be average value of goals for this to work.
To determine how many goals a team scores on average per match, you should take the total number of goals in a season and divide it by the number of matches that team has played. Although this method won’t provide absolute accuracy, at least you’ll have practical figures to verify.
Alternatively, you can compare the form of both teams (recent matches or their head-to-head encounters).
Are you still confused about the Poisson method? Don’t worry, especially when you participate in football betting at JILILive. You can rely on the odds provided by JILILive to calculate the average expected score of the match.
For example: In the Chelsea vs. Brighton match, JILILive offers a 0.5-goal handicap, and the O/U is 2.5. Thus, Chelsea’s average goals would be 1.75, while Brighton’s would be 0.75.
After mastering the use of the Poisson formula to calculate football betting odds, you can fully calculate probabilities in familiar betting types like O/U, score bets, or handicap bets.
Conclusion on the Mathematical Method in Analyzing Odds
Through this article, we have just analyzed how to bet on football scores using the Poisson mathematical technique. This is a method that helps you predict score probabilities with relatively high accuracy. If, after reading, you still don’t know how to use probability calculations based on this technique, then participate in football betting at JILILive. Through JILILive’s platform, all information related to the match is fully shared. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to contact us immediately.
